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McLaughlin Grubu:"Son Bin Yılın En Büyük Lideri Atatürk'tür"

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McLaughlin Grubu:"Son Bin Yılın En Büyük Lideri Atatürk'tür"

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: You're in the right sphere. The Person of the Full Millennium goes to Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, a Muslim visionary who, in 1922, abolished the Ottoman Sultanate, a feudal monarchy; emancipated women, adopted western dress, converted the Arabic alphabet to Latin -- the only leader in history to successfully turn a Muslim nation into a western parliamentary democracy and secular state.







ANNOUNCER: GE is proud to support the McLaughlin Group. From medical systems to broadcasting, GE: We bring good things to life.

(Music: "Entry of the Gladiators.")

ANNOUNCER: It's the McLaughlin Group Millennium End Awards, years 1000 to 1999.

Now here is the master of ceremonies, John McLaughlin.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Millennium or Faux Millennium? Unquestionably faux. This is the faux millennium, the pseudo-millennium. The real millennium is next year, midnight, December 31st, 2000, not 1999.

However, in response to our countless requests from our countless fans, the group hereby salutes the faux millennium with our Faux Millennial Awards Show, not seen since our last Faux Millennial Awards Show 1,000 years ago. (Laughter.)

The criterion for each nomination in each category is this: a concept or event or person that marks a turning point in human history, not merely another link in a chain of subsidiary events, but the beginning of something dramatically new, major, and enduring.

With that, let's go to the first category, the Greatest Discovery of the Last 1,000 Years. Michael?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Well, I have to say the discovery of America -- Columbus, 1492, whenever you want to date it.

The fact is, of course, America -- civilizations existed here before, but the European civilizations have turned out to make the greatest -- in North America, the U.S., have turned out to make a huge difference to the world.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Eleanor Clift?

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] I'm going to go for the disease-fighting discoveries -- the discovery of microbes, antibiotics -- and a special commendation to Jonas Salk for discovering the polio vaccine and ending a scourge in such a clean, neat way. One shot and you're fine.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Tony Blankley?

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] The discovery of the free-market principles of economics, by Adam Smith and the classical economists, that made possible all the abundance that the world now enjoys.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Very edifying, Tony.


[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] Eleanor's right. It was discovery of germs. Prior to that, we knew nothing about health care.

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Mm-hmm.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] The envelope, please, Tony.

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] (Chuckles.)

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] (Opens envelope.) The Greatest Discovery is DNA. James Watson and Francis Crick in 1953 outlined the structure of DNA, opening the door to genetic engineering, and that unlocking is the most important discovery of the second millennium. And its varied application could be the most important discovery of the upcoming third millennium.

Faux millennial cheers to Watson and Crick.

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Okay. (Laughs.)

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Hear, hear!

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] Hear, hear!

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] Hear, hear!

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Hear, hear!

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Hear, hear, Crick! (Chuckles.)

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] The Most Important Invention of the Faux Millennium. I ask you, Michael.

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Well, I'd say the distribution and transmission of electricity, because it makes the operation of so many other inventions possible.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Eleanor?

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Gutenberg's movable type, which spread education to the masses and gave us books through the ages and the dominant form of communication before the Internet.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Greatly overrated. (Laughter.)


[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] Unfortunately, Eleanor's right; it is the printing press.

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Ah!

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] But since Bill Clinton isn't here, I want to give his offer, which would have been the zipper. (Groans, chuckles from panelists.)

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Lawrence?

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] John, you're going to get overruled here, John. It was the printing press. (Laughter.) So there's three votes already.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Yeah. No imagination -- (laughter) -- and overblown.

The Most Important Invention of the past 1,000 years is flight technology -- Leonard Da Vinci's notebooks, Orville and Wilbur Wright's gasoline-powered plane, jet propulsion of the space shuttle. Flight technology has thrown open travel and commerce and warfare and the planetary system.

The Most Ominous Invention -- ominous. I ask you.

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Ominous. I'd say nuclear weapons, because it's the first invention that threatened the possibility of ending human life itself.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Eleanor?

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Michael is right, and I would add to that the mountain of nuclear waste that we haven't yet figured out how to get rid of.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] You're both right, but you're both very predictable.


[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] Genetic engineering, which is going to permit man to play the role of God in remaking ourselves while, of course, we remain without His wisdom.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] We've already saluted DNA, Tony.

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] Well, genetic engineering, the invention that follows that discovery, is ominous.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] You mean the applications?


[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Yes. Next millennium. Listen, we're talking about the second millennium.

I ask you, Lawrence.

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] Gunpowder was the Most Ominous Invention. The atomic bomb is simply the end of that chain of invention.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] It's close, but no cigar. The Most Ominous Invention: the computer. Yes, and it's true the computer can enhance human creativity and freedom, but it can also unleash massive abuse. Like what? Like government and commercial interests and others using computers to invade our personal privacy and create an Orwellian future of Big Brother surveillance. It's here. (Laughter.)

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] I thought you were talking about spamming, John. Come on.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Greatest Explorer, Michael?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] I'd pick Captain James Cook. Through his voyages in the Pacific from 1769 to 1778, he discovered that Antarctica was not connected to Australia, he mapped out boundary lines from Hawaii to Alaska, found out there was no Northwest Passage. And he preserved his seamen's lives by having limes and lemons on board to prevent scurvy.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] You mean Cook over Magellan?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Oh, yes.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Cook over Drake?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Oh, absolutely.


[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Cook was a real scientist, John. Cook --

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Did you give this a lot of thought?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Yes, I --

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] (Laughs.)

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Eleanor?

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Well, he got limes and lemons in the same sentence. You get an award for that.

I say Neil Armstrong, who was the first man on the moon. And he fulfilled a promise that President Kennedy made at a time when the nation badly needed a lift in its spirits.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] You're keeping this category Democratic, right?

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] (Chuckling.) Absolutely, John.


[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] Well, I have two choices. My first one is Magellan, for circumnavigating the globe.


[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] I think that that shows seamanship, unsurpassed.

But as far as the importance of any exploration, it's got to be Columbus, obviously, because --

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] You know, I visited the Straits of Magellan last year.

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] Dangerous waters down there.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Well, it's incredible how circuitous all of -- I don't know how he was able to do it.

Yes, Lawrence?

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] The greatest explorer was, of course, the great Irishman Saint Brendan, who, we all know, discovered America before Columbus. All of us graduates of Saint Brendan's Elementary School in Boston know that.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Was he descended from Vikings?


[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] There you go.

The greatest explorer was Albert Einstein. His voyages of the mind took Einstein from the inner world of the atom to the unlimited vistas of outer space. He discovered more about our universe and its basic forces, I say, than any other single person in a thousand years.

Most Watershed Event, Michael?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] I picked June 22, 1941. Hitler attacked Stalin. The 5 million German and other Axis troops go over the line. Without that, it's hard to see how we could have overcome what was then a Hitler-Stalin alliance in control of most of the land mass of Eurasia.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] That's the -- the Most Watershed Event of the millennium?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Because totalitarianism might have triumphed, without that.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Eleanor?

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] I'm going with the American Revolution, the Declaration of Independence that spurred the war and established the basic right to self-government and the war itself, which showed that a bunch of ragtag rebels could conquer a great power.


[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] No, that's derivative. The correct answer is the English Parliament of 1265 --

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] It's not derivative if you're an American. (Laughs.)

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] -- which is the first Parliament in which commoners participated and began the process of House of Commons, Parliament, Congress, the whole participation of the common man in his own governance.

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Simon de Montfort.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Well, we could go back to the Greeks.

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Right.

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] Not in this millennium, we couldn't.

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] (Laughs.)

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Lawrence?

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] The Most Watershed Event was Columbus's arrival in the New World, which we cannot call a discovery of the New World, because that is what led to the colonization. The Irish, of course, were not empire-builders. They weren't interested in taking over this whole continent.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Let's see if we can move this further back. The Watershed Event of the millennium was the decline of China. For thousands of years, China was the Earth's most advanced civilization. In the second millennium, however, China hit the depths, with colonialism, warlordism, communism. So, in technology, science, culture and economics, China fell way behind. But in the upcoming millennium, of course, China intends to change all that and change it with a vengeance.

You can put that in one of your new columns in U.S. News and World Report.

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Thank you, John.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Okay. Greatest Injustice, Michael?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] The Holocaust. The application of modern technology to the destruction of a whole group of people.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Eleanor?

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Unfortunately, there are a lot of injustices to choose from. Mine is slavery, which is a injustice that we're still reeling from today.


[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] Eleanor, again, you're right. The answer is slavery, imposed by people who claimed they loved freedom.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Lawrence?

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] You know, I considered slavery; I considered a lot of things, but I kept coming back to the Holocaust. I'm sure you did too, Michael. It's -- I just don't think there's anything worse.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] The Greatest Injustice is the Holocaust carried out by Hitler, which slaughtered up to 7 million Jews and it was particularly abominable, perverse and heinous because it was attempted genocide.

The Most Forward Thinker, Michael?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] The Most Forward Thinker; I would pick Adam Smith and Edmund Burke in the 18th century, two British contemporaries who -- Smith told us about the free market, and Burke told us that we must respect tradition and make sense -- that we got freedom from tradition and from free markets.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Well, who is the more forward of the two?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Who was the more forward of the two? I would pick Smith.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Smith over Burke?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Yeah. Well, Burke had a much wider field.

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Well, and he was an Irish man, too. (Chuckles.)

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Eleanor?

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Machiavelli, "The Prince," who wrote the political bible for all future politicians and, in that sense, was our first spin doctor.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Machiavelli, the tactician, the strategist --

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Yes.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] -- as the Most Forward Thinker?

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] He is being followed today and well into the foreseeable future. (Laughter.)

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Tony, can you improve on this?

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] I think so. This is where I think Einstein --

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] It's not a difficult task, is it?

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] -- this is where Einstein comes in. He actually answered the questions that weren't yet being asked about the nature of the universe. That's why he was thinking -- he was thinking in answers ahead of ever -- the people's even questions.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Well, excellent choice. Excellent. It was new, it was major, and it was enduring.

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] Well, there is a chorus here. I agree with Tony on Einstein for all the reasons Tony just said and for the reasons you gave as making him the greatest explorer.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] The Most Forward Thinker of the Millennium, however, Tony, was Sigmund Freud, who explored the inner workings of the human psyche, advancing our knowledge of human motivation into an unknown, unrecognized deep world of influence -- Lawrence, take note -- the realm of the subconscious -- (laughs) -- the realm of the unconscious, and, Lawrence, the world of the libido, the id. (Laughter.) Have you got that?

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] I am listening, John.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] You like it, don't you?

MR. : (Inaudible.)

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] I visited Freud's home in Vienna, and anyone listening to this program has got to do it. He was also a marvelous stylist. His writing was so great.

The Most Retro Thinker, Michael?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] I'd pick Karl Marx. He thought he saw a future, that capitalism was going to turn into Communism and that this would be progress. It turns out Communism has all the worst features of feudalism and none of the good features.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Eleanor, Most Retro?

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Pope Urban the Eighth, who ordered the prosecution and arrest of Galileo for discovering that the Earth revolved around the Sun and wasn't the center of the universe.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] He did not discover it. Copernicus discovered it.

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Well, advancing it or proving it. He proved it.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Well, that's different. Okay.

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Okay. You are resting on a technicality. (Laughs.)

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] She says it's Pope Urban the Eighth. What do you say?

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] No. It's Marcel Proust, who dedicated his great genius to "Remembrance of Things Past." (Laughter.)

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] And he wrote the volumes where? in a cloth-lined room.

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] Room, yes, and for years he did that to try to re-create the evocation of his own past.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Most retro.

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] It was Cardinal Roberto Bellarmino, who actually agitated with the pope to suppress Galileo's teachings.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Do you know he was a Jesuit? Cardinal Bellarmine?

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] Yes, I do. (Laughter.)

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Actually, Eleanor's right. The Most Retro Thinker of the last 1,000 years was Pope Urban the Eighth. In 1633, the pope summoned Galileo before the Inquisition, he threatened torture to get Galileo to recant his novel theory that the Earth revolves around the Sun. Now, it took over 300 years until our present pope, John Paul II, admitted that Galileo was right, the Earth, in fact, does revolve around the Sun, and with that I think we should toast a full millennial cheers for Pope John Paul II. Cheers!

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] Hear, hear.

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Cheers. (Laughing.)

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] We'll be right back with more McLaughlin Group Millennial Awards.


[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Here we go -- Hoax of the Millennium. Michael Barone?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Communism. It was supposed to help the working man and be a dictatorship of the proletariat. It turned out to be a dictatorship of the nomenklatura.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] At last, you're on the money.


[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] I agree. Communism looked great on paper, but it turned out you couldn't even buy a paper. It really crushed the human spirit.

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] That's derivative. The answer is the Enlightenment, which believed that man could live by reason alone without faith and reason without faith led to Auschwitz and it led to the Gulag.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Enlightenment?

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] The Enlightenment Movement, yes.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Weren't the Founding Fathers influenced by the Enlightenment?

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] They were.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Weren't they deists?

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] Many of them were also religious, though.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Lawrence?

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] Virtually all health care practices prior to the 20th century. Doctors did more harm than good right up until this century.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] That's a good suggestion, Lawrence, but the more basic one is the hoax of millennial Marxism. Karl Marx promised Utopia and freedom from chains, but he delivered totalitarian one-party dictatorships fraught with cruelty.

Greatest Reversal of Fortune, Michael?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Well, I'd start with Girolamo Savonarola, the monk in Florence who had burned the fancy clothes and things in the Bonfire of the Vanities and then was burned at the stake himself in 1498, a precursor, as it were, of the greater tyrants that met similar fates -- Robespierre in 1794, Hitler in 1945.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Was he right or wrong? Savonarola?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Savonarola. He was wrong.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Eleanor?

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Britannia ruled the waves by the 16th century, but in the 20th century the sun set on the British Empire. (Laughter.)


[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] Well, I'm not sure about that, but the greatest reversal is Christianity, which in the first half of the millennium rose to control all of Europe in its sovereignty and in the second half, declined to the periphery, much to the damage of society as a whole.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Do you really believe that?


[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] I don't take that view. Lawrence?

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] The Greatest Reversal of Fortune was China, which as you said, began the millennium as the most advanced country in the world and is now virtually at the bottom. Certainly mention is worth going to the Third Reich, which had a rather dramatic reversal of fortune.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] The Greatest Reversal of Fortune in the last 1,000 years is the fate of the Native Americans. At mid-millennium, their cultures dominated North and South America, Lawrence. Then came Columbus, the European migration, 400 years of ethnic conflict. And now only tiny vestiges of Native American cultures and populations are left, a Dramatic Reversal of Fortune for two entire continents of peoples and civilizations. Take note, Michael.

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Thank you.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] The Most Influential Religious Figure, Michael Barone?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Among the many possibilities I would pick John Calvin, whose Calvinistic Protestant doctrines and the Reformation had vast influence over large parts of Europe and the Europeanized world and who was also associated, as Max Weber taught in "Protestantism and the Rise of Capitalism," with the rise of the capitalist spirit.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Calvin over Luther?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Calvin over -- Luther was more just a German national figure, whereas Calvin was more of an international figure with Calvinist churches in Hungary and Geneva, Switzerland, and Scotland.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Eleanor?

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Gandhi, who liberated millions of people from under Britain's boot, without violence, and whose theories on nonviolence underpinned our civil-rights movement.


[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] We are hostile with Albion tonight. (Laughter.)

No, it's Martin Luther. He is not just a German figure; he founded the Reformation and caused a schism in the Church, which is part of the reason why -- the reversal the Church has experienced in the last 500 years. So, of course, it's Luther.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Lawrence?

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] Well, Gandhi wasn't a religious figure -- Jesus Christ, who to his believers is as alive today as he ever was on this planet and whose influence is undeniable.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Lawrence, I commend you for lurching into the truth on this. The most influential religious figure of the last 1,000 years is Jesus Christ, defending his title from Millennium One straight through Millennium Two. (Laughter.)

All major events of the second millennium are tied to Christ; expulsion of the Moors from Europe, Columbus' voyages to the New World, Christianity to Africa, India and Asia. The first millennium was Christianity struggling for a toehold; the second millennium was 1,000 years of Christ's spreading influence.

The Greatest Military Leader, Michael Barone?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Well, I'd pick Genghis Khan, the first great leader of the Mongol Horde. The Mongol Army swept over everything in their way, conquered the civilization of China. They won the Battle of Liegnitz in Silesia in 1241, and then were summoned back to elect a new king. Otherwise, Western Europe would have all been --

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] I had a feeling you would go for Genghis. (Laughter.) I had the feeling -- or Bonaparte.

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] I go for Napoleon, who conquered most of the known world until he met his Waterloo.

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] Technically, Napoleon.

But the greatest influence was Joan of Arc, who led the French to drive the English off the continent and, therefore, allowed both France and England to gain their greatness, England by gaining insularity and France by regaining her glory. And thereby, we gained the benefit of those two great nations.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Downstream effect from Joan of Arc.

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] From Joan of Arc.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Interesting.

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] I agree on Napoleon. But honorable mention has to go to Ho Chi Minh, who beat the greatest military power of the millennium.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Hold on to your drawers. The Greatest Military Leader of the Millennium is Mohandas K. Gandhi, the only revolutionary to defeat an empire with an army with no guns, a master strategist who chose only one weapon, nonviolent resistance, perfect for defeating the oppressor, Tony, Great Britain.

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] Only if the oppressor doesn't want to use guns against the oppressed. (Laughter.)

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Good point!

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] Well, against Hitler he'd have been dead in a week. (Laughter.)

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Well, that was precisely Gandhi's cunning, which is rarely seen on the planet.

Next category: Dominant Trend. Michael?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] The Dominant Trend, I think, over the long run of millennium history has been to achieve a balance of order and liberty. That's something our founders were -- made great progress in, and we're in much better shape, despite some terrible setbacks during the millennium.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Eleanor?

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Land grabs and warfare. From the Norman Conquest in 1066 to Genghis Khan 200 years later, to Tamerlane, to Hitler, to Stalin, it's throughout the millennium.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Dominant Trend of the Millennium?

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] The diffusion of political power downward from kings to the common man.

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] Individualism. Unknown at the beginning of the millennium, now dominant.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] All true, but I'll give you a more penetrating one.

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] (Laughs.)

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] The Dominant Trend is the triumph of the West. The past 1,000 years has belonged to Western civilization. The Muslim empire withdrew to its desert homelands. Asia fell into hundreds of years of decline. The West rules.

The Most Influential Artist, Michael Barone?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] I'd have to say Michelangelo for both painting and sculpture.

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Well, I agree with Michelangelo, but I would like to extend it to a man of letters, and Shakespeare has to be mentioned.

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] I -- it's a tie: Chaucer and Dante, for encouraging -- well, for founding Western literature; Dante encouraging speaking in the vernacular; Chaucer for covering the common man, instead of aristocrats; and their giving rise to all the cultural art we know today.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] What about speaking in Middle English? Did he give rise to that?

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] He was the beginning -- just the end of Old English and the beginning of Middle English. I think we're done --

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] (Reciting the first two lines of the Prologue of "The Canterbury Tales" in Middle English.) "Whan that aprill with his shoures soote/The droghte of march hath perced to the roote."

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] It's lovely to hear, even though I don't understand it. (Laughter.)

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Lawrence?

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] It has to be Shakespeare, who, among other things, first identified the possibility of individual personality.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] The Most Influential Artist of the millennium was -- fasten your seat belts! -- Juan Gris, G-R-I-S -- (laughter) -- the unsung and almost forgotten counterpart of the intuitive Pablo Picasso. Gris's analytical and chromatically intense Cubism broke the boundaries of Realism once and for all, pioneering an epoch of abstract art.

We'll be right back with the Person of the Faux Millennium.

(Music: "Entry of the Gladiators.")


[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Michael, who is the Person of the Faux Millennium?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] I nominate James Madison, who was the primary author of the U.S. Constitution, which was the single biggest step forward in the process --

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Checks and balances?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] -- for its balance of order and liberty, a sustainable balance in which people could live, be productive, and pursue happiness.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Perceptive.

Can you improve on that?

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Charles Darwin, "Origin of the Species," theory of evolution. You can't know where you're going until you know where you've come from.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Person of the Millennium?

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] I don't think there's any one person who can actually be that. But the person who exemplifies the most attributes of the millennium would be Winston Spencer Churchill -- (laughter) -- who, by his writing, his leadership --


[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] -- his courage, his love of wine, personified, I think, all the best things of the last thousand years.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] And they were a credit to Her Majesty's Secret Service. (Laughter.) Yes.

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] It has to be Mahatma Gandhi, who has been mentioned here as a religious leader and a military leader, neither of which he was. But he showed the world for the first time in history that there was a way to achieve a major contested geopolitical objective without killing people.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] You're in the right sphere. The Person of the Full Millennium goes to Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, a Muslim visionary who, in 1922, abolished the Ottoman Sultanate, a feudal monarchy; emancipated women, adopted western dress, converted the Arabic alphabet to Latin -- the only leader in history to successfully turn a Muslim nation into a western parliamentary democracy and secular state.

And now -- why don't we toast our audience?

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Absolutely!

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Happy New Year, Decade, and Millennium to our audience! Cheers! Bye bye!




[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Predictions for the third millennium, Michael Barone?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] A population decline, John. A lot of the big philanthropists and organizations have been very concerned about population growing too much. The fact is, world population now, growth has slowed down. Western European countries like Italy have lower, declining populations and birth rates. I think we're going to see this as a phenomenon all over the globe fairly soon, into the next millennium and we'll have problems to deal with from it.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] When will the decline begin?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Well, it's already begun, John. I mean, you know, the Italies, Spains, Germany and so forth, they're in population --

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] When will the gross world decline begin?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] I think probably about the second century of the millennium.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Eleanor Clift?

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Well, I disagree with that. There may be a slowdown, but we've hit the 6 billion mark and the planet is going to be groaning if those people even halfway perpetuate themselves.

But my prediction is the end of the next millennium, the lifespan will be extended to 150 years. But the Democrats and the Republicans will still hold the retirement age at 67 -- (laughter) -- because they won't want to lose votes in Florida, Arizona and about 20 other states that have gone gray.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] During the next century?

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] No, not -- it's going to take --

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] During the millennium.

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] I said millennium.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] A hundred and fifty years?

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] Yeah.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] I think that's conservative. What do you think, Tony?

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] Well, I think that genetic engineering is going to change the nature of what it is to be human and so we don't know whether it'll be a 150 years or 200 years, whether we'll all be seven-foot blondes, but it's the beginning of the end of humanity as we knew it and a new race of humans are going to be growing in the next millennium.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Really? That sounds like my DNA mention earlier.

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] The advancement of that principle, yes.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Lawrence?

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] The most important thing about the next millennium is that there will be one; that we, as a race, will complete that millennium. That was very much in doubt within the last 40 years, with nuclear weapons by superpowers aimed at each other. The possibility that we would lose everything was very strong. We have conquered that, we have that in check, and we will now go all the way.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] You are predicting that the millennium will in fact be a millennium for human beings?

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] That's right.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Profound, wouldn't you say?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] Well, in a thousand years, another McLaughlin --

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] And no way to check. (Laughs.)

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] The deciding factor in shaping the third millennium, I predict, will be the outcome of a giant power rivalry between the United States and a newly assertive China. Does anyone disagree with that?

[B]MR. O’DONNELL (?):[B] That's about the way it's going to look.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Will there be a thermonuclear war?

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] No, there will not because the nuclear powers will continue with the kind of controlling rationale that all nuclear powers have had on it up until now.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Over the next thousand years, will there be a thermonuclear war?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] There may be in what we call the Third World; South Asia, possibly Africa.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Some kind of an outbreak, maybe tactical? Nothing bigger?

[B]MR. BARONE:[B] I think South Asia is the number one --

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] What do you think?

[B]MS. CLIFT:[B] No. The war will be in the economic sphere and the information sphere.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Tony, tell us. Tell us. Will there be a thermonuclear war?

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] Well, I certainly hope --

[B]MR. O’DONNELL:[B] Do you want one, John? (Laughter.)

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] -- I certainly hope I am wrong. But I thought we were extraordinarily lucky to get through the last 40 years. I doubt we can get through the next thousand without one.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Tony, is that realism or pessimism?

[B]MR. BLANKLEY:[B] I hope it's pessimism.

[B]MR. MCLAUGHLIN:[B] Well, we all do, Tony.